The above is the GFS for Sunday.
A shield of snow.
Long draped front across Florida.
It’s a model……
……a snapshot of that possibility in time.
This is reality above!!!
Cold, dry air flowing down into the South.
It’s cold… my heat came on.
I keep the heat low lilke AC.
It’s 32 degrees – feels like 27 degrees!
Check that chill map out above…..
Where’s that huge winter storm we are talking about online nonstop? It’s far away in the Pacific. The NWS Discussion for Raleigh explains that perfectly as shown below. Well, you have to turn the world around to see our players that will come together to create some sort of Winter Storm. The models offer an ever changing array of possibilities that change hourly depending on the specific model! The actual forecast for this weekend is shown below, but remember it’s tweaked in real time depending on new model information and as the storm comes together.
Another possibility from the ICON model.
Similar but different from the GFS above!
Note the NWS discussion below.
Details and words matter as you can see above “because the system is currently over the Pacific ocean in a relative data-void area for model information” and that’s because once over land, the various NWS offices will launch baloons, collect data and we will see what we really have and the models will be way better.
This is similar to what I say over and over during the Hurricane Season when I say “until we have a defined center and that data is put into the models we won’t have reliable model solutions” as details matter.
As for wishing, you can take it to the bank that I’m wishing for SNOW this weekend in North Carolina, and praying hard that our snow doesn’t go South or East or North, because I really want a real snow storm!
I’m so hooked on snow that when my daughter posted this picture of my grandson running into the house from the bus…. my mind saw “OH MY GOD LOOK AT THAT SNOW!” 😉 It’s cold there… as in 1 degree currently in the Monsey NY area. There’s snow on the ground and it’s not going anywhere soon! Yes, I could go up there but really laying low this month and I want the snow to come to me!
We will know soon enough. I’ll take take this seriously on Thurdsay … but watching, reading and obsessing!
Living in North Carolina I have many favorite weather friends and people, but I lean heavily on what Allan Huffman says as he is careful, cautious, analytical and more often right than wrong. If you live in this region he is very good to follow.
I also lean heavily on a blend from the following.
Ed Piotrowski in Myrtle Beach…showing what I am saying in this blog. It’s far away still…