BRIEF COASTAL STORM / NOR’EASTER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 04, 2022…7:00 P.M. EST (00Z)


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information I have to analyze at the time, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!…short and sweet.

Analysis of the global models ECMWF and GFS this evening, indicates an area of low will begin to develop off the VA / NC coast, very early in the morning of Jan. 07, and move NEWD toward Nova Scotia, becoming a breif coast storm and Nor’easter.  The models indciate this will be a fast moving system, and should reach Nova Scotia by early afternoon of the 7th.
ECMWF AND GFS NORMALIZED MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-ne-mslp_norm_anom-1641297600-1641524400-1641578400-40
gfs-deterministic-ne-mslp_norm_anom-1641297600-1641524400-1641578400-40
As this systems enters the Atlantic, surface winds are forecast to increase to moderate storm force ranging from 35 mph away from the center, and closer to 50 mph mainly south of the low center.  Wave height is forecast to range between 11 to 16 ft well offshore at the moment.   Small craft should remain in port, and commercial vessels should consider evasive action.
ECMWF AND GFS SURFACE WINDS FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-ne-wnd10m_stream_mph-1641297600-1641524400-1641578400-40
gfs-deterministic-ne-wnd10m_stream_mph-1641297600-1641524400-1641578400-40
WAVEWATCH 3 WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST
ww3-ne-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1641319200-1641524400-1641578400-40
Continued snowfall accumulation is forecast for parts of the NE / New England area during the next 120 hours.  The totals projected are in addition to what has already occurred since late this morning.
ECMWF AND GFS KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTAL 120 HOURS (INITIALED 15Z)
ecmwf-deterministic-ne-total_snow_kuchera-1641297600-1641308400-1641729600-40
gfs-deterministic-ne-total_snow_kuchera-1641297600-1641308400-1641729600-40
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a evening day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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