So that happened today! Subtropical Teresa formed rather suddenly and is forecast to be short lived. The NHC forecast is for a quickie sort of hook movement and there are no cities in the Wind Probs. It could help to weaken that edge of the High which may or may not be a factor down the line. It should be short lived but around longer than dinner so from barely anything to look at to getting the Teresa name means the next name up is Victor!
What’s a Subtropical?
Phil Ferro explains it clearly here.
Back to Sam.
Looking good, stronger.
Getting closer to the Islands.
Though the Cone doesn’t touch them currently.
Sam as I said previously is a bit of a trickster. Everytime you expect it to go slow it speeds up and when it looks to be taking a break in intensification it intensifies. A sort of stairstep crooked development but smoothed out it’s fairly consistent. Currently the peak of intensity in the 5 day is for it to be 140 MPH in 2 days. You can use that as a measure to how on the money the forecast has been with regard to intensification. Generally we are better at track and still trying to perfect intensity forecasting.
While the cone is barely at the Islands, many of the islands are in the Wind Probs though they are still very low. It’s a good measure to watch how they change as an indication of future changes in track. This is how I use it, based on how someone who worked at the NHC years ago who was a close friend/neighbor suggested I use it and it’s never really failed me.
This is where the wind probs come in, as they are shown on the NRL track map that I use frequently. As always watch the trends with regard to future forecasts. It’s worth saying that the best thing you can do with regard to Sam is to stay prepared and on top such things as having your medications refilled in case a hurricane does come to visit you. The NHC forecast is carefully prepared and though there are many intangibles as every day passes it becomes more clear what will happen. There are errant models that show parts of our coastline in danger and most of the others insist it will stay out to sea. Too soon to tell, follow your local experts and check back here Saturday night.
For Miami people, please follow Phil Ferro he’s very good at what he does without hype nor ego.
Forward speed will be a key as will factors out ahead of Sam. Remember there is an area behind Sam that could become Victor, unless something forms faster in the Caribbean – however that’s more down the line rather than coming soon to a theater near you!
Again any time there is a hurricane forecast to become a stronger hurricane out in the Atlantic to the ESE of you ….. monitor any changes in the forecast, remember it’s there and continue to make sure your hurricane prep plans are set to put into motion should the cone begin to inch closer to your home!.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
In NC watching the blue skies and loving the cooler temperatures. No one is praying for the next front to be a strong one more than me. Love winter as much as I love tropical weather. As for the rest of the world, my eyes are also watching the volcano put on it’s show. I studied much geology along with meteorology in college and well I’m kind of an Earth Science Lover.
I really prefer hurricanes to most other forms of “natural disasters” but in a strange way watching volcanoes is similar, but different, to watching the beauty of the Northern Lights. So much color and intensity, unpredictable and potentially destructive.