Home Weather Storm Tracker AREA OF INTEREST YUCATAN PENINSULA / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 10, 2021…5:00 P.M. EDT

AREA OF INTEREST YUCATAN PENINSULA / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 10, 2021…5:00 P.M. EDT

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AREA OF INTEREST YUCATAN PENINSULA / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 10, 2021…5:00 P.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:  13
TOTAL HURRICANES:          5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

TOTAL U. S. LANDFALLS:    6

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

Good evening everyone,

I wanted to throw something in here…for those not aware, if you want to keep up with current information from the NHC or your NWS office, if you look at the large header graphic on this page below the hurricane hunter aircraft, you’ll see items which say “abbreviations”, “about”, (you’ll see National Hurricane Center on the left corner), etc…each of these items are linked.  Just click on any of them for different items.

Today marks the climatological “peak” of the hurricane season.  Just a note however, during my years of forecasting, I’ve seen the season peak as early as Sept. 05, and as late as Sept. 21.

The tropics have quieted down considerably.  The NHC indicates 2 areas, in which they have designated a HIGH (70%) probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days.  Neither area has been declared an INVEST area as of yet.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO
two_atl_5d0
The Tropical Wave exiting Africa at the moment, will have favorable conditions as far as the shear pattern and 200 mb pattern, as well as mid level moisture during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the upper pattern becomes much less favorable, and the system begins to ingest dry air at the mid level.  During the favorable period, we could see development of a Tropical Depression.  Right now, there was not any guidance as far as intensity or track.  However, based on analysis of the ECMWF and GFS, and forecast steering currents, it is suggested at the moment that this feature will recurve.  I will be monitoring this closely for any significant changes in the forecast parameters during the next 48 hours.  You will note that the circulation “center” is north of the convection within the ITCZ.  I will also be monitoring the area south of the wave, in the ITCZ, as IR satellite seems to indciate a circulation..
EASTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE
59710241
ATLANTIC SATELLITE
59710241ATL
ECMWF SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-eatl-shear_850v200-1361600
The other area is located over the Yucatan Peninsula.  Right now, there has been no guidance initiated on this either.  Analysis of satellite loop imagery from the visible channel, seems to show some weak, almost undetectable rotation.
YUCATAN SATELLITE ANIMATION
91580954
90210046
Currently, an upper level trof is inducing shear over the area.  Based on my analysis of 200 mb winds, this trof is forecast to move west, and over Mexico during the next 24 hours.  By 48 hours in the forecast period, wind shear is forecast to relax, and the pattern turns favorable for development.  The ECMWF and GFS both indicate a very small, weak area of low pressure near the coast of Mexico/Texas, but do not indciate any significant development.  Analysis of the 500 mb relative humidity values indicates ample moisture will be present, and PWAT is forecast to increase.  Based on analysis of both the wind shear forecast and 200 mb streamline forecast, conditions will become much less conducive for development at around 72 hours.  Based on this, we could see development of a Tropical Depression within the next 72 hours, though I am not too keen on this right now…albeit the probability does exists.  I will say however, these type of systems since we are still in phase 3 of the MJO, could show better development just prior to landfall, as phase 3 of the MJO favors close in development.

Based on analysis of the forecast steering pattern, the “track projection” from the NHC graphical tropical weather outlook map looks good.  The area of interest should continue on a WNW motion, then on more of a NW track after entering the BOC.   From the NHC outlook:

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Heavy rains are likely to reach portions of the western Gulf coast late this weekend.

The GFS brings the “low” into Mexico, while the ECMWF brings it in toward Brownsville/Padre Island, TX.  Right now, until I can see if and when something develops, and models have a well defined low to latch onto, intensity and track should be considered low confidence.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-1437200
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-1458800
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-1512800
ECMWF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-rh_fourpanel-1631253600-1631253600-1631534400-40
ECMWF TPW FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-pwat-1631253600-1631253600-1631534400-40
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-mslp_norm_anom-1631253600-1631253600-1631534400-40
gfs-deterministic-gulf-mslp_norm_anom-1631275200-1631275200-1631545200-40
I’ll be monitoring this closely over the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, the ECMWF is hinting at another system developing south of the Cape Verde Islands in 4 – 5 days, and brings it toward the Caribbean.  I cannot totally rule this out, however I am going to look for run to run consistency since the GFS and CMC do not indicate anything.
ECMWF EATL AND ATLANTIC FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-eatl-mslp_norm_anom-1631275200-1631620800-1631793600-40
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-mslp_norm_anom-1631275200-1631620800-1631966400-40
The MJO phase space diagram keeps us in phase 3 up until around the 20th of the month, then swings into phase 4.  So, we should see things begin to slow, or even somewhat shutdown after that time.
JMA AND ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST
JMAN_phase_51m_full
ECMF_phase_51m_full
The following is the updated JMA model forecast for CHI200 anomalies.  Based on the forecast, a phase 4 pattern looks to be in order.  IF the MJO behaves as it should, we may see a return to conditions more favorable for development, or increase in tropical activity starting around Oct. 10, or even may closer to mid month.
JMA MJO WEEK ONE (SEP. 12 – SEP 18)
jma.1
WEEK 2 (SEP. 19 – SEP. 25)
jma.2
WEEK 3 (SEP. 26 – OCT. 09)
jma.3
28 DAYS MEAN
jma.4
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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