TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 14, 2021…7:45 P.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

TOTAL U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

The tropics remain quiet this evening.  Satellite imagery indicates a lack of any real activity in the Atlantic basin:
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE ANIMATION
98789192
AFRICA SATELLITE VIEW
us_sat-en-087-0_2021_07_14_22_15_641_126
The NHC is bored again, and is playing with the crayons.  The marked area is a broad low, which is currently attached to a stationary front.  Albeit the NHC states the conditions are only marginal, and some development could occur, the ECMWF and GFS are not really interested in it, and are showing conditions remaining marginal at the moment in the forecast.  I’m not taking interest in it.  It would have to break free of the front, or the front would have to dissipate, before I would show any concern.  The NHC has designated a 10% probability for development over the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO
two_atl_5d0
TAFB 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
USA_18Z
I really have no change to speak of since my last synopsis.  The MJO still remains in a suppressed phase, and the forecast based on CHI200 anomaly forecast maps still indicates this phase to remain in place until the end of the month.  The JMA ensemble updates tomorrow, and I’ll have a look to see what changes come about.
CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST MAPS
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021071412_CONTROL_240
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021071412_CONTROL_360
twc_globe_mjo_vp200
Along with the suppressed MJO phase, African dust is plentiful this week.  This, along with the MJO, is keeping vertical instability well below climatology for this time of the season.  The black solid line in the graphic, indicates climatology.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY
ts_al_tat_THDV
NASA GOES SAL FORECAST
nasa-geos-all-exatl-dust-1626264000-1626264000-1626696000-40
The following links are articles on the MJO, explaining pretty much what it is, and how it affects tropical weather.
MJO EXPLAINED
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/2/2009jcli2978.1.xml

Based on my analysis of the current forecast conditions, I really do not anticipate development, or increase in activity until approximately the first week of Aug, maybe even the beginning of the second week of Aug., depending on how conditions actually pan out.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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