Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 5
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
TOTAL U. S. LANDFALLS: 3
The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.
Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.
The tropics remain quiet this evening. Satellite imagery indicates a lack of any real activity in the Atlantic basin:
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE ANIMATION
AFRICA SATELLITE VIEW
The NHC is bored again, and is playing with the crayons. The marked area is a broad low, which is currently attached to a stationary front. Albeit the NHC states the conditions are only marginal, and some development could occur, the ECMWF and GFS are not really interested in it, and are showing conditions remaining marginal at the moment in the forecast. I’m not taking interest in it. It would have to break free of the front, or the front would have to dissipate, before I would show any concern. The NHC has designated a 10% probability for development over the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO
TAFB 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
I really have no change to speak of since my last synopsis. The MJO still remains in a suppressed phase, and the forecast based on CHI200 anomaly forecast maps still indicates this phase to remain in place until the end of the month. The JMA ensemble updates tomorrow, and I’ll have a look to see what changes come about.
CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST MAPS
Along with the suppressed MJO phase, African dust is plentiful this week. This, along with the MJO, is keeping vertical instability well below climatology for this time of the season. The black solid line in the graphic, indicates climatology.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY
NASA GOES SAL FORECAST
The following links are articles on the MJO, explaining pretty much what it is, and how it affects tropical weather.
Based on my analysis of the current forecast conditions, I really do not anticipate development, or increase in activity until approximately the first week of Aug, maybe even the beginning of the second week of Aug., depending on how conditions actually pan out.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS