Home Weather Weekly Climate and Energy New Roundup #461 – Watts Up With That?

Weekly Climate and Energy New Roundup #461 – Watts Up With That?

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Weekly Climate and Energy New Roundup #461 – Watts Up With That?


The Week That Was: 2021-07-03 (July 3, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “All men are born free and equal,…”  – Opening phrase, Part the First, A Declaration of the Rights of the Inhabitants of the Commonwealth, in the 1780 Constitution of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, drafted by John Adams, which is the world’s oldest functioning written constitution. The phrase was used by the Supreme Court of Massachusetts to abolish slavery in the Commonwealth on July 8, 1783, before the Revolutionary War ended with the Treaty of Paris of September 3, 1783. [The abolition included female slaves.]

Number of the Week: 1 to 2°F out of 30 to 40°F?

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

“The Proof” That Isn’t: As mentioned in last week’s TWTW, the heatwave in the US Northwest and Canada’s Southwest came primarily from a high-pressure dome that settled over the area. The system was “stalled” by a north-south flow of the jet stream guided by Rossby Waves. Rossby Waves are planetary waves naturally occurring in rotating fluids such as the Earth’s oceans and atmosphere. First identified by Carl-Gustaf Rossby in 1939, in the atmosphere these waves can stall the normal flow of weather systems over a particular area of the earth’s land surface. In the summer, they are linked with a number of extreme “heatwaves” over Europe, Asia, and North America.

Unfortunately, many in the media, including climate scientists, claimed this localized extreme heatwave was “proof” of carbon dioxide-caused global warming / climate change. It is not. A significant part of central United States, the breadbasket of the country, was cooler than normal. Further, part of the Southern Hemisphere has been colder than normal.

Roy Spencer reports that for June 2021, global lower atmosphere temperatures were slightly below the thirty-year average. These are the most comprehensive temperature trends existing, independently verified by weather balloon data taken with different instruments. They refute the claims that the extreme heat is the result of global warming. Spencer wrote:

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June 2021 was -0.01 deg. C, down from the May 2021 value of +0.08 deg. C.

REMINDER: We have changed the 30-year averaging period from which we compute anomalies to 1991-2020, from the old period 1981-2010. This change does not affect the temperature trends. [Boldface in original.]

The linear warming trend since January 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).

Despite the near-normal global average temperatures, the USA Lower 48 temperature anomaly of +1.44 deg. C was the warmest in the 43-year satellite record, ahead of +1.15 deg. C in 1988. In contrast, the Antarctic region (poleward of 60 S latitude) experienced its 2nd coldest June (-1.25 deg. C below the 30-year baseline), behind -1.34 deg. C in June 2017.

The full University of Alabama, Huntsville, Global Temperature Report is not yet out, but should be within a few days.

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science, Changing Weather, and https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/rossby-wave.html.

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Thomas Hans Wysmuller, RIP: Tom Wysmuller of Ogunquit, Maine, passed away at the age of 77 on June 29, 2021, after a long bout with cancer.

In 1968, Tom was one of nine people chosen through a series of nationwide exams for NASA Executive Interns in the U.S. He worked at NASA before, during, and after the moon landings. His programming skills were so well-known throughout the agency that at one point he was the youngest person ever selected to serve on NASA’s Source Selection Board for agency–wide computer services.

In 2009, Tom helped found The Right Climate Stuff Climate Research team (TRCS) which used the scientific methods developed for the lunar landings to investigate the danger of human-caused global warming. [On his website “The Colder Side of Global Warming” Tom criticized the shift from HadCRUT 3 to HadCRUT 4 which added to the urban heat island bias but preferred that data to GISTEMP (NASA-GISS) and other surface datasets.] Using surface temperature data, the TRCS team concluded there is no climate emergency.

“Our conclusions, based on empirical data, are clear:  The warming of the atmosphere caused by increased amounts of CO2 are small and insignificant, only about one degree centigrade for this century. Our further studies showed that the claims of climate change causing more frequent and more severe hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods, sea level rise, forest fires, etc. are false. The actual measured data shows no increase in any of these serious conditions.  Our conclusion is simple: Mother Nature is controlling the climate; CO2 emissions are not.  And more CO2 is definitely beneficial to Mother Nature’s work. There is valid proof of significant greening of the earth since the beginning of fossil fuel use.”

Tom was extremely concerned that satellite data showed a far greater rate of sea level rise than shown by geologically stable tidal gages. NOAA and NASA reports claimed accelerating sea level rise. According to his obituary, Tom wrote:

“He considered it one of his greatest achievements when in 2018, he solved the discrepancy of Sea-Lever Rise (SLR) reported by The University of Colorado and NASA’s Satellites in comparison to land coupled tide gauges. His ‘reverse-engineering’ technique showed how a programming error generated the much higher rate of SLR being reported by satellites vs world-wide tide gauge measurements.

The failure to validate the computer programs by thorough testing against physical evidence would have been unacceptable to the Apollo Team. It demonstrates the lowering of standards at NASA. The TRCS website states:

“We need to give you a word of caution when we refer to ‘NASA.’ The TRCS Research Team was founded by engineers and scientists retired from the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston. We sometimes arrive at conclusions about climate change and its effects significantly different from conclusions published by other NASA Centers.”

Those who knew Tom recognized his zest for life and how well he disguised his cancer, not letting it interfere with living, including driving numerous times between Maine and Houston over the past decade. We shall miss him. See http://wysmu.com/tom/, https://www.therightclimatestuff.com/ and http://www.colderside.com/Colderside/HadCRUT4.html

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Pogo Stick Power: Pogo Sticks are devices used primarily by children to jump off the ground repeatedly while standing on the stick. Last week, TWTW reported on the changes in wind power generation as reported by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), which includes the Columbia River Gorge “where the wind always blows.” As of May 4, the total nameplate generation is 27,879 MW of which 79.5% is hydro and 10.5% (2930 MW) is wind.

Over the week from Saturday June 26 to Saturday July 3, wind power hit zero two times, on June 26 and June 29, during the extreme heatwave. It went from zero on June 29 to near maximum of over 2500 MW on June 30. It has bounded up and down like a child on a pogo stick. Even though BPA has reliable hydro power to back up wind, Advista Corp of Spokane, Washington, which generates and distributes electricity in four Northwest States, announced rolling blackouts (greenouts) during the extreme heatwave.

Yet many politicians are insisting that pogo stick power can replace reliable power generation from fossil fuels and nuclear. See links under Energy Issues — US

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Wildfire Threat: President Biden claimed that recent outbreaks of wildfires are caused by global warming, “the climate crisis.” On their websites, government agencies are eliminating wildfire data prior to 1983. In the 1980s and 90s Federal fire policy went from fire suppression to let-it-burn. Thus, eliminating a major part of the record is grossly misleading. In May, Jim Steele posted an excellent review of wildfires and their fuels. As Steele states:

“More so, the 2°F increase in global air temperatures since the Little Ice Age, increases the fuel’s temperature insignificantly and thus highly unlikely to increase ‘the likelihood of a fire starting, or increasing the speed at which it spreads” as NASA claimed.’”

The resolute Tony Heller has dug through records to show how grossly misleading government websites have become about wildfires. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Questioning the Orthodoxy, and Change in US Administrations.

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Science Integrity Task Force: On June 25, the Biden Administration’s “Scientific Integrity Task Force” issued a press release stating:

On January 27, 2021, President Biden issued a Presidential Memorandum on Restoring Trust in Government Through Scientific Integrity and Evidence-Based Policymaking (2021 Memorandum). The Memorandum asserts the Start Printed Page 34065Administration’s goal to develop sound policy to make evidence-based decisions guided by the best available science and data, recognizing that scientific and technological information, data, and evidence are central to the development and iterative improvement of sound policies and to the delivery of equitable programs across every area of government.

Today, the Scientific Integrity Task Force opens a window to receive input from the American people on ways to help ensure that scientific integrity is paramount in Federal governance for years to come. The feedback gleaned from the request for information (RFI), available today and open for 30 days from its official date of publication on Monday, will inform the Task Force’s recommendations to ensure robust and accurate evidence-based policymaking and to restore public trust in government.

The task force has nearly 50 members representing numerous agencies, including EPA, DOE, NASA, NSF, NOAA, DOD, etc. Ex Officio members include Jane Lubchenco of the Office of Science and Technology Policy. During her previous government service as head of NOAA, she gave a speech stating, in effect, it is the duty of scientists to support government policy in exchange for government support.

Participation is voluntary, with no government support. Note that the limit is 7 pages 12-point font, with a due date of July 28, 2021, 5 PM ET. The submissions are to be electronic:

“Interested individuals and organizations should submit comments electronically to [email protected] and include “SI-FTAC RFI” in the subject line of the email. Due to time constraints, mailed paper submissions will not be accepted, and electronic submissions received after the deadline cannot be ensured to be incorporated or taken into consideration.” [Boldface italics in original]

In preparing a submission on the Social Cost of Carbon, SEPP did not see any page limit and was forced to delete much of its submission at the last moment to meet the limits set for the electronic submission. Also, note that the 2009 Presidential Memorandum cited as supplementary information stated:

“The 2009 Presidential Memorandum articulates 6 principles to guide recommendations for Presidential Action to guarantee scientific integrity throughout the executive branch: (1) Selection and retention of candidates for science and technology positions in the executive branch should be based on the candidate’s knowledge, credentials, experience, and integrity; (2) Agencies should have appropriate rules and procedures to ensure the integrity of the scientific process within the agency; (3) Scientific and technical information used in agency decisions should be subject to established scientific processes, including peer review; (4) Agencies should make available to the public the scientific or technological findings or conclusions considered or relied upon in policy decisions (to the extent release is not restricted); (5) Agencies should have in place procedures to identify and address instances in which the scientific process or the integrity of scientific and technological information may be compromised; and (6) Agencies should adopt procedures, including whistleblower protections, needed to ensure the integrity of scientific and technological information and processes used for decision-making or otherwise prepared.” [Boldface added]

Note that the 2009 memorandum states peer review, not in a peer-reviewed journal. Scientific integrity can be a more precise topic compared with the Social Cost of Carbon. SEPP intends to submit comments, adhering strictly to the page limits of submission. See links under Change in US Administrations.

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A Cooling Climate: There has been a flurry of papers published by the Nature publishing group emphasizing species extinctions during cold periods. On WUWT, Eric Worrall links to an essay in The Conversation that may suggest a reason. The argument could be that virtually all species today evolved in a cooling world. Since carbon dioxide is warming the globe (by a tiny amount) this warming could result in great species extinction. Of course, such an extinction requires a temperature sensitivity of the globe to carbon dioxide far beyond anything that can be justified by observations and experiments. But such a point has not stopped the Nature publishing group before. See links under Changing Climate and Below the Bottom Line.

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14th ICCC: The 14th International Conference on Climate Change presented by The Heartland Institute will be October 15 to 17, 2021, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/

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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD

THE JACKSON

SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:

The past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz, Michael Mann, Christiana Figueres, Jerry Brown, AOC, and Neil Ferguson are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 31. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to [email protected] Thank you. For a list of past recipients and their accomplishments in earning this honor see http://www.sepp.org/april-fools-award.cfm

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Number of the Week: – 1 to 2°F out of 30 to 40°F? On his weather blog, Cliff Mass, professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington, comments how absurd it is to claim that the extreme weather event in northwest US and southwest Canada was the result of human caused global warming. Even if one accepts that all the warming from the beginning of the industrial revolution was caused by humans. That would mean 1 to 2°F (0.5 to 1°C) was human caused. Yet, temperatures in the affected communities were 30 to 40°F above normal. (17 to 22°C). And high-pressure areas tend to become less intense with global warming. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

UAH Global Temperature Update for June 2021: -0.01 deg. C

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, July 2, 2021

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/07/uah-global-temperature-update-for-june-2021-0-01-deg-c/

New Podcast: Global Warming and the Northwest Heatwave, Plus the Weekend Forecast

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 2, 2021

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/07/new-podcast-global-warming-and.html

A Canadian heatwave & the heat dome: unprecedented or unusual?

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, July 2, 2021

Fact Checking the Wildfire-Climate Link

By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, May 24, 2021

http://landscapesandcycles.net/fact-checking-the-wildfire-climate-link.html

Dear Climate Alarmists: Your fearmongering isn’t cool anymore

By Daniel Nebert, Minding the Campus, June 29, 2021 [H/t David Acevedo]

Defending the Orthodoxy

Media reaction: Pacific north-west ‘heat dome’ and the role of climate change

By Multiple Authors, Carbon Brief, June 30, 2021 (updated July 2, 2021)

Link to report: Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change

By Numerous Authors, National Academy Press, 2016

https://www.nap.edu/catalog/21852/attribution-of-extreme-weather-events-in-the-context-of-climate-change

From article: “In Lytton, a small village in Canada, record-breaking temperatures of 46.1C (115F), 47.9C (118F) and 49.6C (121.3F) were recorded on three consecutive days. Before this heatwave, the highest recorded temperature in the region was 45C.”

[SEPP Comment: Measurements to a tenth of a degree C or F?]

Scores dead as record-breaking heat wave grips Canada, US

By AFP Staff Writers, Vancouver (AFP). June 30, 2021

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Scores_dead_as_record-breaking_heat_wave_grips_Canada_US_999.html

Is It All Just Greenwashing? How to Recognise Genuine Sustainable Commitment

By Regina Henkel, ISPO, June 28, 2021

https://www.ispo.com/en/trends/it-all-just-greenwashing-how-recognise-genuine-sustainable-commitment

Rocky Mountain forests burning more than any point in past 2,000 years

Scientists analyzed a unique network of fire-history records

Press Release, NSF, July 1, 2021

https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=303008&WT.mc_id=USNSF_1

Link to paper: Rocky Mountain subalpine forests now burning more than any time in recent millennia

By Philip E. Higuera, et aal. PNAS, June 22, 2021

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/25/e2103135118

Edited by Michael E. Mann

[SEPP Comment: How much is due to policies of fire suppression during the bulk of the 20th century?]

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Canada, US heat wave ‘on steroids’ due to climate change, say experts

By Lucie Aubourg Washington (AFP) July 1, 2021

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Canada_US_heat_wave_on_steroids_due_to_climate_change_say_experts_999.html

[SEPP Comment: All-seeing experts with blinders.]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

We Can Greatly Reduce the Wildfire Threat. Will Our Leaders Take the Necessary Steps?

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, June 30, 2021

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/06/we-can-greatly-reduce-wildfire-threat.html

“Today, a major (lightning-caused) fire has started in nearby British Columbia (the Lytton Fire) and has spread to over 12,000 acres, showing that the potential for large fires exists right now.

“If state leaders do nothing and a major fire occurs during the next few months due to fireworks or powerline interactions with vegetation, responsibility will be clear.  And vague statements blaming global warming will not be acceptable.”

“Countless Scientists”

By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 26, 2021

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/06/countless-scientists/

“The last time CO2 was at the safe level of 350 PPM was 1988, when Yellowstone burned, the Mississippi River almost dried up, and Cancun was largely destroyed by the second most intense Atlantic Hurricane on record.”

[SEPP Comment: And Jim Hansen testified to a Senate committee on dangerous CO2-caused global warming.]

Global Warming 33 Year Birthday a Celebration of Failures

By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, June 30, 2021

Then And Now In Stoke on Trent

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 29 2021



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