INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 24, 2021…9:05 P.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS NEEDED AND APPRECIATED

Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

STORM W PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

First, I’m going to briefly touch on the wave that was near the Windward Islands.  The NHC has dropped it from the outlook.  This may be attributed to wind shear, and dry air.  In the water vapor loop, you can see the dry air sweeping over the Islands:
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 WATER VAPOR ANIMATION

GOES 16 ATLANTIC SATELLITE ANIMATION

Analysis of the current shear forecast indicates upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for any development of this wave.  However, given the presence of a decent surface circulation, based on ASCAT data, I’ll try to keep tabs on it in case conditions change for a more favorable environment.  Systems like this, CAN develop later, if the come under favorable conditions, due tot he low level spin, and the fact it is and should remain a warm core shallow circulation:
ASCAT WIND DATA

Enter Tropical Wave INVEST 95L.  You will note 95L in the satellite animations above, just off the east coast of Africa, and below in the shortwave IR animation:
WEATHERNERDS INVEST 95L SHORTWAVE IR ANIMATION

CLOSEUP LONGWAVE IR

Convection is disorganized at the moment, and is probably why it has not been designated a Tropical Disturbance.  As of the 18Z ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 95L:
2:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 24
Location: 5.0°N 17.5°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

INVEST 95L is currently moving toward the WNW.  Based on analysis of forecast steering maps, and recent models rack guidance, I expect this motion to continue during the next 24 hours, with a bend more toward the west thereafter.  I currently base this on the 700 – 850 mb steering pattern:
RAL 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE

I had to use the GFS steering currents forecast map, as it was the only one thus far I could make the graphic for.  The black circle indicates approximately where 95L will be located in 96 hours, based on guidance.  You can see the flow by the arrows and streamlines.  As 95L gets closer to the 120 hour period, the possibility exists of a more WNW track happening, due to a possible weakness in the ridge north of the Lesser Antilles.

INVEST 95L currently has max winds of 30 mph.  Based on analysis of current wind shear, the upper environment is fairly favorable at the moment.  Based on the shear forecast however, as we go out in time, both the ECMWF and GFS currently indicate wind shear to increase, and is shown in the 18Z GFS Zonal Shear forecast with winds increasing out of the west (orange and red shading).
GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST CURRENT

GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST 96 HOURS

Albeit wind shear over the area is currently less than 20 kts, the 200 mb streamline pattern doesn’t indciate any radial outflow.  The current pattern does however indciate some upper level divergence, albeit not optimal.
ECMWF

The RH forecast indicates decent moisture from the surface up to 700 mb in the forecast, however the ECMWF forecast for the 500 mb level shows drier air eventually coming into play at 500 mb level down the road
ECMWF 500 MB RH FORECAST ANIMATION

Both the ECMWF and GFS don’t seem to have much of an interest in the wave:
ECMWF


GFS


The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (40%) probability of development during the next 5 days.  Based on my analysis this evening, I have to concur at the moment of a depression possibly developing by early next week per the NHC outlook, as it could take advantage of the marginal conditions, prior to conditions turning less favorable.  The ECMWF EPS probability forecast indicates the same scenario.
NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS PROBABILITY FORECAST

I will continue to monitor INVEST 95L during the next 72 – 96 hours for any significant changes to the forecast parameters

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



Source link

Recent Articles

Related Stories

Leave A Reply

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here