Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM W PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 5
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
Based on updated information in climate models, my seasonal forecast may change, once I have time to perform a total analysis.
The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.
Current satellite loop imagery still indicates the Atlantic to be fairly quirt, with the exception of some shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a large tropical wave locate near
25W- 30W longitude. The feature we are interested in this evening is disturbed weather in the EPAC near 13.0N; 97.0W.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE ANIMATION:
The NHC has circled the BOC and has designated a LOW (20%) probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)
If you recall from my previous 2 forecasts I believe, you’ve heard me mention development “may” occur from an EPAC crossover (the disturbance that has been closest to Mexico). Well, this appears to be coming to fruition. You’ll notice in the above satellite loop, a big ball of convection just crossing into Mexico, and a large turning in the clouds below it. Based on the current 850 mb winds map, the large cyclonic motion appears to be associated with the CAG (Central American Gyre). Based on analysis this evening of the ECMWF and GFS global models, low pressure is still forecast to develop over the extreme southern BOC during the next 72 – 96 hours, eventually forming a tropical depression, and possibly a minimal tropical storm, based on analyzed MSLP. I would expect to see something start coming together within the next 4 to 5 days. In order to save time, I will mainly be using ECMWF graphics.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST
The ECMWF EPS Cyclone probability forecast now indicates a HIGH probability of a tropical depression within the next 5 days:
EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY
Based on analysis of such a large area of rotation at the moment, and lack of any real vorticity at the surface (some slight, elongated vorticity is noted at around 700 mb, but nothing appreciable at the moment), this “MAY” be slow to come to fruition. However, given the increased probability per the EPS, development looks a little more promising (albeit it does not necessarily indicate that it is imminent).
Based on analysis of the current wind shear map from CIMSS, the area is currently under 40 kts of wind shear. However, the upper level wind analysis does indicate a rather large and elongated area of upper level outflow at the moment.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
Based on my analysis of the ECMWF, wind shear is forecast to relax, with conditions becoming favorable for slow development. Later in the period however, where the model shows “something” getting further north in the Gulf, wind shear is forecast to increase and could very well weaken, any “system” that may be present. So basically, in the beginning, shear becomes reduced and conditions become somewhat favorable for development. Upper level winds never really become too favorable, with only some partial outflow noted east of where the center would approximately be located. This pattern will evacuate “some” air away from the system in the upper atmosphere, however not enough for any good strengthening. This is probably one of the factors in why the models currently show a weak system. Always remember, this can change on short notice.
ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINES FORECAST
Plenty of moisture will be available as seen in the ECMWF RH forecast maps. As time goes out however, it is noted drier air begins to entrain at the 500 mb level. Surface moisture will be ample, based on the forecast precipitable water values.
ECMWF 4 PANEL RH FORECAST
ECMWF PWAT VALUES FORECAST
Definition of PWAT or TPW from Wiki:
Precipitable water is the depth of water in a column of the atmosphere, if all the water in that column were precipitated as rain. As a depth, the precipitable water is measured in millimeters or inches. Often abbreviated as “TPW”, for Total Precipitable Water.
So, based on the values noted in the graphic, the “system” will be very wet
The ECMWF is indicating copious amounts of rainfall over the next 10 days should development occur.
ECMWF TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
Given that should something develop, it is still at least 7 days out from possible landfall, so some of the parameters and values could change. At this time, track cannot be accurately determined, as we have no development as of yet, and models have no “core” to lock onto. Given this, PLEASE DO NOT focus on the models as far as where this may be going. Once and if a system develops, and track guidance begins running, I will provide you with the necessary information in order to make any informed decisions. I will be monitoring this area during the next 5 – 7 days, and will try to have another synopsis sometime this weekend.
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS