Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.
Satellite loop imagery still indicates a fairly quiet Atlantic basin, so I wanted to focus on the area which is marked as Area To Watch:
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP
Upon further analysis of wind flow, and current vorticity maps, this appears to be confined to the mid levels at the moment. It COULD be the precursor to probable development, however based on my analysis of the ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast map,, and information contained in the current NHC outlook, this is forecast to cross into central America. Based on the EPS probability forecast, development beginning in the BOC seems more likely, and appears to be a combination of this area, possible energy from a disturbance currently in the EPAC, being aided by the central American gyre in about 5 – 6 days. The loop of the ECMWF EPS probability forecast tends to indicate this scenario. The EPS currently shows a 60% – 70% probability of a tropical depression in the 6 – 8 day period in the forecast.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY
GFS 925 MB AND 850 MB FORECAST (ARROWS INDICATE THE CAG)
Global models are pretty much in agreement of development, however timing and strength differ at this time. As a precaution, one should not focus on intensity, or especially forecast motion, until we see if a closed low actually develops, giving the models something to “latch onto”. Models become more accurate once a closed low and warm core develop.
Right now, based on the analyzed MSLP in the maps, should development occur, we could be looking at a minimal to mid grade tropical storm. But, this remains to be seen.
Analysis of the ECMWF deterministic model indicate some fairly favorable conditions in the forecast, however one slight limiting factor is, the 200 mb level streamline patter indicates only a partial radial outflow to the east of the forecast center. Again, this could change between now and the 6 – 10 day period. All other parameters look favorable for development with ample moisture forecast through the mid level of the atmosphere, high precipitable water values, and favorable CHI200 anomalies, indicating very good divergence int he upper atmosphere. The shear pattern which will be low in one sector, follows the pattern of the 200 mb streamline forecast.
ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST (RED ARROWS INDICATE OUTFLOW)
ECMWF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST (FOUR PANEL DISPLAY)
ECMWF PWAT FORECAST
Based on the current information, and the increase of probabilities from last night, and consistency in the modeling, the possibility of a tropical depression forming during the next 7 days has increased. While there is no imminent threat, residents along the Texas Gulf coast may wish to monitor the situation over the next 5 – 7 days, just to keep abreast.
I will continue to monitor the GOMEX during the next 5 – 7 days.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS